Premier Information: Battling The Weather

The sun has been gracing our fine shores for the past few days and in the racing world, it couldn't be better news! However, that doesn't mean racing can't occur in even the worst conditions. The United Kingdom is notorious for it's varied weather patterns and to counter this we have courses that support;

ALL WEATHER RACING

There are four all weather courses in the UK,

Kempton Park
Lingfield
Southwell
Wolverhampton

While they come under the umbrella title of all-weather tracks there are two different types of surface. Southwell has Fibresand while the other tracks use Polytrack.

Fibresand is a heavier surface which is equivalent to racing on turf or even heavy ground on turf and produces kickback which some horses have an intense dislike for. This feels like someone kicking sand in your face at the beach ! For this reason Southwell tends to favour horses who can race prominently or who are described as strong travelers because they will avoid as much kickback as possible. You need to be convinced that a horse will see out the distance before having a bet on this surface.

Polytrack is a kind of rubberised sand and is similar to running on fastish turf and kickback is not an issue.

Form does not transfer between the two surfaces.
Turf form does not transfer to the all weather tracks so when looking for winners consider only all weather form. In addition, form does not transfer well between the different tracks because of the different surfaces and the different characteristics of each course. Saying that, the consistent nature of the surfaces means that most races can be run at a good pace and you get more truly run races. Please also note that rain has the opposite effect on the all weather surfaces than it does on turf in that when it rains the surfaces compact and become firmer. Also, in periods of long dry weather the surfaces become looser and the going becomes slightly slower.

The key to finding winners is to look for horses that do well at particular courses and trainers and jockeys who have good records at the track.

You may not be aware, but Sky Journalists have picked up our blog too! Going up in the world!
Don't forget, we also have Twitter to follow over at Twitter.com/premierinfoUK

Premier Information: Against All The Odds!

It's Tuesday, the Great British weather is treating us mighty fine at Premier HQ. Whilst we're all back with our noses to the grindstone, I thought I'd spend 5 minutes continuing on from the article last week on the Betting Exchange.

Today we will look at one of the aspects of betting that confuses the best of us and can quite easily put off newbies making a punt!

Exchange Odds.

Odds on Betting Exchanges are presented in decimals, whereas in general bookmaking they are in fractions. Betting Exchange odds, as in Pool betting (Tote etc) include the backers one point stake in the presentation of odds.

6/4  is represented by 2.5. 2/1 is represented by 3.0 and an odds on price of 4/5 would be represented by 1.8 The Betting Exchanges allow their clients the possibility of a dual role.   That is of being either a bettor or a layer of odds.   Initially this may present a challenge to the normal perception of only making a profit by selecting winners. Now there is the opportunity to profit from finding a loser!

If you lay a horse, you are effectively assuming the role of bookmaker. It works like this: Imagine you are strongly of the view that the favourite, lets call him “Exchange Newbie” running in the 3pm at Haydock is NOT likely to win. Perhaps after studying hard you feel this is a poor favourite and with many other good horses in the race, you wish to oppose this horse. In such circumstances, you can LAY “Exchange Newbie”. The horse is trading at 2/1. You oppose him and lay him for £25. Another exchange client, feels this horse will win. He takes the opportunity to back him at £25 at 2/1. You are now in a position where if the horse loses you get to keep the £25 stake.   If the horse wins, because you are acting as the bookmaker, you would have to pay out £50.   Just as Mr Ladbrokes would have to pay you £50 if you had a £25 bet at 2/1 with him!

Is risking £50 to make £25 value? Well obviously that is a subjective view prior to the race and the only after the events can you say for certain. However,  you need to keep in mind, that if “Exchange Newbie” was running in a ten runner race, there are actually nine other horses actually running on your side so to speak! If you had good reason to think the horse was a vulnerable favourite, then it quite possible that laying the horse in those circumstances was value.   

The important thing to remember when laying is that you must think like a bookmaker. Once you have the approach and mind set correct, then opportunities to profit certainly exist.

Until next time! Be sure to check out our Twitter account for all the latest updates found at www.twitter.com/premierinfouk

Premier Information: Taking On The Betting Exchange

Over the next few articles, we will take a look at BETTING EXCHANGES.  That is Betfair and
Betdaq primarily.

Betting Exchanges have become one of the most important developments in betting. 
Exchanges have arisen as a traditional industry seeks to meet the challenges and opportunities of the electronic age. Their inception has followed reforms in on-course betting in the late 1990s that focussed on the selling off of prime racecourse bookmaker pitches. This brought in new money that boosted competition, often providing greater value to backers as bookmakers worked at slightly lower margins and offered better odds.  

Betting exchanges are the publicly accepted face of what previously some professional backers had always practised.   That is, betting amongst themselves, laying odds and placing bets other than with licensed bookmakers. The Betting Exchanges now offer this opportunity to the wider public.

In practice, a Betting Exchange operates by holding money deposited by each of its clients, which it holds in a separate private account for each one. The Exchange then operates a  trading market where odds are offered or requested by its various clients, and when these are matched a bet is struck.

Once the result is known, an electronically recorded transaction triggers a debit or a credit – less a commission for the Exchange, to the individual client accounts.   Bets can be made online or by telephone instruction to the Exchange.

Backers can conduct their accounts with immediate deposits or withdrawals by debit card or by cheque.

Next time, we will look how the all important odds work on the Betting Exchanges.

Premier Information: Flat Racing Horse Take Two! (Part 2 that is!)

It's been a bit of a quiet week this past week, but thankfully the weather has been forgiving, what more can we ask for?

We're continuing our look at the Flat racehorse today! This paticular topic seemed to grab quite a bit of interest with some of our community, so I hope you're enjoying my views just as much as I enjoy writing about the topic.

A two year old horse is physically immature. Comparable to a child in human terms.  As a
three year old its maturity begins and it is like a teenager becoming a young adult. At the age of four it begins to reach its physical peak and is usually considered in its prime for flat racing. A five year old is fully mature - a colt is considered a horse and a filly is considered a mare. Further physical development is reduced and what development there is does not generally aid the horses racing ability.

Flat racing has a rapidly and constantly changing population in horses as a new crop of two year olds appear every season and replaces other and older horses. The fortunes of most flat racing yards revolves around the intake of fresh young horses from the sales and from private studs. Often, these horses arrive as unbroken yearlings and each trainer is faced with the task of attempting to turn raw recruits into efficient racing machines. There is considerable pressure on trainers to deliver the goods for owners and connections. The risks are great but the rewards, for a “good one” are enormous – not just on the track but also in terms of future breeding.

Of course, in real terms, only a few go on to achieve top flight success. Some may find that after their career on the flat that they can successfully switch codes and end up with a new career as National Hunt horses.   There are always a few decent sorts that successfully move

from the flat to the jumps and do well for doing so.

Premier Information: Running On A Bit Of A Flat

We hope everyone had a fantastic weekend, even if Sunday was the only decent day in the UK!

Now that the Flat season is back with us, I thought it would be useful to take a look at

The Flat Racehorse.

 

A Flat racehorse’s racing life usually begins as a two year old.   All thoroughbred race horses are given an official birthday on 1^st January, regardless of what date in the year they were actually born.   A horse foaled in February and a horse foaled in June will both be officially considered a year old on 1^st January of the following year, when one would actually be ten months old and the other six months old.   

This can lead to considerable physical disparity in the horses in the early part of their careers, especially as two year olds. This imbalance may not be properly resolved even later during their three year old racing season. If you tend to back two year olds on the flat, then it is worth looking at the dates a horse was actually foaled.   There are stats available that clearly show that two year olds foaled in January have around a 10% winning percentage and horses foaled in May is around 6%.   As you would probably expect, the older horses have an advantage.    

Most horses that begin racing as two year olds end their racing lives by the time they are five years old.   Sometimes this is due to lack of ability or injury but also because they have been retired for breeding purposes.   

I will continue to discuss the flat racehorse next time.

Premier Information: That Winning Form - Part 2!

We're back again for part 2 of todays double feature. Has it been a bit of an insight? Well we're touching up on a similar topic once again
Recently, I explained that form is there for all to see.   In fact sometimes, it is possible to look at things too deeply. Simple often works best. One type of form is, for me, particularly important.   That is WINNING FORM.7

Winning form is invariably the best form in all spheres of racing, because winners win again,
often at the next time of asking, despite carrying a winner’s penalty or running from a new
handicap rating.   Simply said, the best form is winning form and losing form the worst form.
Such a statement may appear obvious, but in analysing form and making a selection this
most basic approach is often overlooked.  Unless the entry conditions of a race preclude
previous winners, previous form always demands the closest attention and is the area upon
which the selector should immediately focus.   Around 20% of winners go on to win their
next race.

Winning form means that a horse has previously shown it has the ability to win a race and
beat other horses in the competitive atmosphere  of a racecourse.  Horses  often grow in
confidence from the experience of a victory, which can lead to future success if the other
factors such as class, going, course etc are similar.

Winners in horseracing, as in other walks of life, are likely to win again.   In practical terms,
a winning racehorse is likely to receive that extra attention and encouragement when it
returns home to its yard that a loser will not.   Everybody in the stable will be affected as
morale is lifted  and hopes for the future raised.  A horse, if only a winner of a minor prize,
will, for a short time get star treatment and be the focus of attention and a interest in its
future has been created.

The spice of victory will also be felt from a financial angle if the stable and owners have
backed the horse.  In contrast the frequent losers get none of these benefits.
Winning form should always be the starting point when analysing a race.  Success breeds
success.

Premier Information: Back On Form

A little bit short and sweet today, but this time I promise we'll have a double feature to make up for it! Especially because we're touching on a subject we've partly covered before. But never the less! It is an important factor that I think deserves a little bit of an extra mention.

FORM

Many people ask me about FORM. I think that many people looking at racing think there
is some magical way of identifying winners and that something “special” in the form book
gives the golden key to success. It is not so. Form is simple and there for everyone to see.

The principle of FORM is simple. When one horse beats another it is because it ran faster!
No excuses can hide that simple truth.  Should the two horses meet again under similar
conditions the outcome is likely to be the same.   Remember, while faster horses may run slower, slower horses cannot run faster.

However, should the two horses meet again, then conditions, distance and especially weight can make for a different outcome. If these factors are primarily no different, then the outcome is far more likely to remain the same as on the first occasion.   You need to look at the form objectively and then consider whether there are factors that may mean that this time the outcome could be different.

There is nothing magical about form study.  But objectivity is the key factor.