Premier Information: The Value of...VALUE!

Value

Value is often misunderstood by punters. Many punters believe value simply means
backing a horse at a big price. That is not correct. True value is when the odds are better
than the chance.

For example, if you bet on the outcome of tossing a coin in the air, then you have a 50/
50 chance. That would be represented by even money in terms of odds. If a bookmaker
offered you a price of 4/5 on the tossing of a coin, then he is giving odds below true value.
You may well say “heads” and be successful, but you are not getting value. However, if a
horse is running in a race, and it has, in theory, a 50% chance of winning and is priced at 2/
1 then that is true value. Whether you win or not on that particular day does not really
matter, because in theory if you continue to back at value, you will succeed over the all
important long term.

Going back to the coin toss, if a casino offered you 2/1 on a heads or tails situation (and they
never would) then you can confidently just continue saying heads all day long and assuming
you play for long enough (it is important to have a large sample size) then you would come
out ahead. Of course, in a casino, the odds are always in favour of the house. So getting
value does not exist. You may get a lucky streak but in the long run the house wins.

Professional betting is different. You can, with careful study and analysis, get true value. It
is making a correct assessment of value that is the tough part.

If a horse is trading at 10/1 and you are of the view it should be priced at 6/1 then that is
value. If you see a favourite trading at 4/5 but you think it should be heavily odds on then
the 4/5 is definitely still value. Value is not all about simply betting big prices. There is
always going to be more value backing a horse that wins at 2/1 (and maybe should be 6/4)
than backing a horse that loses at 10/1 (that maybe should be 20/1).

Recently, we have looked at Form, Fitness, Class and Conditions. Once you have poured
over those factors, you must always then take into account the odds on offer. If you have
a selection standing out like a sore thumb, but you know that the bottom line is that the
price is too short, then hard though it may be, it is better to let it run. This is the essential
difference between leisure gambling and professional betting. Discipline is a an absolute
must.

We all approach betting in different ways. As I have said before, “many men, many
methods”. I know many people will approach things differently. What works for me may
not work for you. In betting you never stop learning and you will always make mistakes.

The last few articles have given a brief insight into some of the considerations I make in the
selection process at Premier Information